COVID-19 Mondays With Matthew April 20, 2020

This Monday’s Topic covers U.S. New Homes:  

  • New Home Sales 
  • Household Formations 
  • Year Over Year Changes in Home Ownership vs Renters 
  • New Home Supply & Demand 
  • Impacts to New Development 
  • Looking Forward –  New Home Development 

How questions or feedback? Email me at justine.marx@windermere.com.


Posted on April 20, 2020 at 8:24 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Real Estate Outlook, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , , ,

COVID-19 Mondays With Matthew

Matthew shares his thoughts and predictions on how COVID-19 will the mortgage market.

This Monday’s Topic covers JUMBO LOANS:
– What is a Jumbo Loan 

– COVID-19 Impacts to Jumbo Loans & Bond Holders

– Bond Holder Actions

– Jumbo Loan Predictions Post COVID-19 

Join us next week for Matthew’s thoughts and predictions on the mortgage market as it relates to conventional loans.


Posted on April 6, 2020 at 10:58 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics | Tagged , , , , , ,

Mondays with Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere

Matthew shares his thoughts and predictions on how COVID-19 will impact the U.S. and our housing market.

This Monday’s Topics:
– Recession
– Health vs. Housing Crisis
– Supply & Demand
– Home Value

 

 

kind words following last week’s video, it makes me so happy

Posted on March 30, 2020 at 7:51 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

COVID-19 – Mondays with Matthew

This Monday’s topics cover: 

– Economy Performance & Predictions by Quarter
– Unemployment Rates
– Need for Economic Stimulation


Posted on March 23, 2020 at 7:36 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics | Tagged , , , ,

A History Lesson

 

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points last week, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson on the Front Range real estate market is in order. 

 

  • In the last 40 years average appreciation per year has been 5.5% 
  • Highest appreciation in a single year was 15.9% in 1994
  • Lowest appreciation rate in a single year was -4.0% in 1982
  • In 2008 Wall Street was in turmoil, the stock market plummeted and the Dow Jones dropped 33.8%. Meanwhile real estate along the Front Range dropped only 2.2%.

 

Bottom line, the Front Range market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns. 

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry.  We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.


Posted on March 11, 2020 at 3:19 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Sellers, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , ,

Credibility in Real Estate Statistics & Market Trends

 

Are the national and local market and trends that are being fed to you credible? Is your real estate resource full of trustworthy statistics that enhance your knowledge of whether to buy or sell? Know that It is okay to ask for the source and credibility of the statistics that are influencing your future home buying decisions. It is only the biggest purchase of your lifetime.

When working with my clients I feel confident in the market trends and statistics that I provide. I leverage one of the most powerful resources in real estate, Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere. Matthew is a well-respected economist with 28 years of professional experience in both the U.S. and U.K. In short, his strengths are in analyzing and interpreting real estate market trends, as well as accurately forecasting and delivering what to expect in the new year. If you are unfamiliar with Matthew and his influence, send me a request to receive our quarterly Gardner Reports to understand the significance of Matthew’s output, and most importantly our local market trends. Even Better!!! If you would like to experience Matthew firsthand, attend our Windermere Annual Forecast the January in Fort Collins and Denver. Contact me for more details and to RSVP as spots are limited.


Posted on December 4, 2019 at 4:46 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Economics 101, Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Real Estate, Real Estate Outlook, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Colorado economy continues to grow, adding 69,100 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, which represents a solid growth rate of 2.6%. That said, we are continuing to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that is to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. My latest forecast suggests that Colorado will add a total of 65,000 new jobs in 2019, representing a growth rate of 2.3%.
In November, the state unemployment rate was 3.3%, up from 3% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to an increase in the labor force, which rose by 77,279 people. On an un-seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report dropped between November 2017 and November 2018. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, but that was still a very respectable 4%. Fort Collins and Boulder had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.9%. All the regions contained in this report are essentially at full employment.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2018, 12,911 homes sold — a drop of 13.8% compared to the last quarter of 2017 and down 22% from the third quarter.​
  • The only market that saw growth in sales was Clear Creek, which rose by 3.8%. This is a small market, however, and is prone to rapid swings in price as well as sales. There was a significant drop in sales in the Denver market. I will be watching closely to see if this is an anomaly or a longer-term trend. At this time, I believe the former to be true.​
  • Interestingly, this decline in sales in Denver came as inventory levels rose by 37%. For now, I attribute this to seasonality and expect to see sales growth return in the spring.
  • Inventory growth continues to give buyers more choice, allowing them to be far more selective — and patient — before making an offer on a home. That said, well-positioned and well-priced homes are selling relatively quickly.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Despite the rapid rise in listings and slowing home sales, prices continue to trend higher, though the rate of growth is slowing. The average home price in the region rose 6% year-over-year to $454,903. Home prices were 2% higher than in the third quarter.
  • In all, the data was not very surprising. As with many markets across the country, affordability is starting to become an issue. However, the recent drop in interest rates likely stimulated buyers at the end of 2018 and I expect to see good price growth in the first quarter of 2019.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Park County, where prices rose 28.2%. We can attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Gilpin County saw a drop in average home price. Though this, too, is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • As mentioned, affordability is becoming an issue in many Colorado markets and I anticipate that we will see some cooling in home price appreciation as we move through late 2019.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose by one day compared to the final quarter of 2017.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in four counties: Boulder, Larimer, Gilpin, and Park. The rest of the counties in this report saw days on market rise relatively modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 20 days.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2018, it took an average of 38 days to sell a home in the region, but it took less than a month to sell a home in five of the eleven counties contained in this report.
  • Housing demand is still there, but buyers appear to have taken a little breather. I anticipate, however, that the spring will bring more activity and rising sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2018, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I will be closely watching listing activity in the spring to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth — something that would-be buyers appear to be waiting for.

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.


Posted on April 19, 2019 at 11:15 am
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers, Colorado Real Estate Market, Economics, Housing Trends, Sellers | Tagged , , , , ,

Which Market?

Well, it depends!

First, let’s define each market. According to research, a buyer’s market exists when there is more than 4-6 months of inventory on the market.

If it would take longer than 4-6 months to sell out all of the inventory currently for sale, then it is a buyer’s market.

This calculation is obviously a function of the amount of inventory on the market and the current pace of sales.

A seller’s market exists if it would take shorter than 4-6 months.

So, which is it?

It depends very much on the price range.

Here are the numbers for Northern Colorado:

• $300,000 to $400,000 = 0.9 months
• $400,000 to $500,000 = 1.9 months
• $500,000 to $750,000 = 2.3 months
• $750,000 and over = 5.8 months

So, most price ranges are a clear seller’s market. It’s not until $750,000 and over that the market starts to approach a more balanced state.

 


Posted on April 15, 2019 at 11:31 am
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers, Buyers & Sellers, Colorado Real Estate Market, Economics, Housing Trends, Real Estate, Sellers | Tagged , ,

The Office

As you travel around the Front Range you will notice the following under construction:

 

  • New Homes
  • New Apartments
  • New Medical Facilities

 

However, you will not notice new office buildings under construction.

What gives?  I thought we had a booming economy.  Why no new office buildings?

There are a couple of reasons.  First, construction costs have sky rocketed.  In ten years, construction costs have gone from about $200 per square foot to over $300 per square foot.

Rental rates have not increased at the same pace as construction costs so speculative investors can’t make their numbers work.

It’s too expensive to build compared to the rents that can be charged.

One reason why rental rates haven’t increased at high rate is property taxes.  Property taxes on Class A office buildings have basically doubled in the last 10 years in many cases.

So, until rental rates catch up with construction costs, we won’t see many new office buildings under construction.


Posted on March 29, 2019 at 3:28 am
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Why No Bubble

There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

________________________________________

If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to me. We would be happy to put it in your hands.


Posted on February 5, 2019 at 7:01 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Real Estate Outlook | Tagged , ,