COVID-19 Mondays With Matthew April 20, 2020

This Monday’s Topic covers U.S. New Homes:  

  • New Home Sales 
  • Household Formations 
  • Year Over Year Changes in Home Ownership vs Renters 
  • New Home Supply & Demand 
  • Impacts to New Development 
  • Looking Forward –  New Home Development 

How questions or feedback? Email me at justine.marx@windermere.com.


Posted on April 20, 2020 at 8:24 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Real Estate Outlook, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , , ,

Mortgage Interest Rates – What Difference Does It Make

A 1% decrease in Mortgage Interest Rates can provide significant savings to your monthly and annual mortgage payments.

Let’s use an example:

Purchase Price: $300,000

Loan Terms:

  • 30 Year Conventional
  • 20% Down
  • Fixed Rate:
    • 5% – Monthly Principal & Interest = $1,288
    • 4% – Monthly Principal & Interest = $1,145
          •   Est Savings = $143 per month, $1,700 per year

 

Just a 1% increase added about $143 to this buyers monthly P&I and a little over $1,700 to the annual P&I. So there is a difference; a big difference. This example is calculated with a 20% down payment. If we adjust that to a lower down payment, say 5%, there is larger savings to be had per month as the buyer is leveraging more on the loan.

 

Purchase Price: $300,000

Loan Terms:

  • 30 Year Conventional
  • 5% Down
  • Fixed Rate:
    • 5% – Monthly Principal & Interest = $1,530
    • 4% – Monthly Principal & Interest = $1,360

   Est Savings = $170 per month , $2,040 per year

 

Engage or re-engage with a lender to understand how these low interest rates can make home ownership more achievable.


Posted on March 19, 2020 at 8:46 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , ,

A History Lesson

 

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points last week, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson on the Front Range real estate market is in order. 

 

  • In the last 40 years average appreciation per year has been 5.5% 
  • Highest appreciation in a single year was 15.9% in 1994
  • Lowest appreciation rate in a single year was -4.0% in 1982
  • In 2008 Wall Street was in turmoil, the stock market plummeted and the Dow Jones dropped 33.8%. Meanwhile real estate along the Front Range dropped only 2.2%.

 

Bottom line, the Front Range market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns. 

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry.  We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.


Posted on March 11, 2020 at 3:19 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Sellers, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , ,

March 2020 Market Update

 

Okay, Northern Colorado its time for your monthly March Market Update! There is a HUGE benefit for buyers in today’s market with interest rates being below 4% or even lower in some cases. Take advantage of this insanely low interest rate so you can start taking advantage of this appreciating market.

Average Single Family Home January 2020 Price Breakdown:

Larimer County:

  • Fort Collins: $479,292 +4.6
  • Loveland: $459,397 +11%

Weld Country:

  • Windsor: $438,102 +0.9%
  • Severance: $384,344 +2.4%
  • Greeley: $334,754 +5.7%

Call me today to get updates on your specific neighborhood or city.


Posted on March 4, 2020 at 9:44 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers & Sellers, Colorado Real Estate Market, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , , , ,

Lovely Stats

  • Prices are up 3.5% compared to last year
  • Inventory is up 10% which means there is more selection for buyers
  • We just had the most active January in terms of closings in over 10 years
  • Well over 13,000 residential properties representing $5.4 Billion of volume has sold in the last 12 months

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.


Posted on February 14, 2020 at 4:47 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers & Sellers, Colorado Real Estate Market, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Credibility in Real Estate Statistics & Market Trends

 

Are the national and local market and trends that are being fed to you credible? Is your real estate resource full of trustworthy statistics that enhance your knowledge of whether to buy or sell? Know that It is okay to ask for the source and credibility of the statistics that are influencing your future home buying decisions. It is only the biggest purchase of your lifetime.

When working with my clients I feel confident in the market trends and statistics that I provide. I leverage one of the most powerful resources in real estate, Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist at Windermere. Matthew is a well-respected economist with 28 years of professional experience in both the U.S. and U.K. In short, his strengths are in analyzing and interpreting real estate market trends, as well as accurately forecasting and delivering what to expect in the new year. If you are unfamiliar with Matthew and his influence, send me a request to receive our quarterly Gardner Reports to understand the significance of Matthew’s output, and most importantly our local market trends. Even Better!!! If you would like to experience Matthew firsthand, attend our Windermere Annual Forecast the January in Fort Collins and Denver. Contact me for more details and to RSVP as spots are limited.


Posted on December 4, 2019 at 4:46 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics, Economics 101, Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Real Estate, Real Estate Outlook, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Two Tales

This is a Tale of Two Counties.

When it comes to new home activity, there is a big difference between Larimer and Weld Counties.

Larimer County new home starts are down 10% and new home closings are down 15% compared to last year.

Weld County new home starts are up 18% and new home closings are up 8% compared to last year.

This is all according to the new home research experts and Metrostudy.

So why the difference?  It comes down to price and availability.

There is more land available for new home development in Weld County.

Plus, the land tends to be less-expensive than Larimer which means that builders can deliver a lower-priced product and reach a larger pool of buyers.

The average price of a new home in Larimer County is $507,105 while the average new home price in Weld is $411,269.

 

 

If you want to see even more insights about the Colorado market so that you can make really good decisions about your real estate, you are welcome to watch this complimentary webinar, just click HERE.


Posted on November 15, 2019 at 5:44 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers, Fort Collins Real Estate, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Most Active

 

What is the most active price range in Northern Colorado?  Take a guess…

  • $300,000 to $400,000
  • $400,000 to $500,000
  • $500,000 to $750,000
  • $750,000 and above

By far, the most active price range is $300,000 to $400,000 with 60% more closed transactions than the $400,000 to $500,000 range and 400% more than homes priced $750,000 and above.

However, this lower price range does not have the most inventory.  The price range with the greatest selection of homes is $500,000 to $750,000.


Posted on November 7, 2019 at 9:47 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers, Buyers & Sellers, WHO LOVES STATS, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
  • Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
  • I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
  • Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
  • Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.


Posted on October 29, 2019 at 3:54 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Buyers & Sellers, Colorado Real Estate Market, Economics 101, Housing Trends, Real Estate, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Case-Shiller

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a well-known report in the real estate industry and a valuable way to gauge what is happening in various markets across the Nation.

The report tracks home price appreciation in the 20 largest markets in the country.

Their most recent report shows that, Nation-wide, home prices are up 2.1% year-over-year.

Last year prices were rising at 6.3%.  So, prices are still going up but not as fast as they were.

The city with the highest appreciation over the last 12 months is Phoenix with 5.8% growth followed closely by Las Vegas at 5.5%.

Denver came in at 3.4% which makes it tied for 8th place out of the 20 cities.

 


Posted on September 20, 2019 at 12:30 pm
Justine Marx | Posted in Economics 101, Real Estate, WHO LOVES STATS | Tagged , ,